CE Delft: Energy sources and demand 2024

Can EU27+3 be self-sufficient in its demand for CO2-free energy sources and competing feedstocks in 2040?

CE Delft recently published a study on Energy sources and sectoral demand in the European Union focusing on investigating whether the 27 Member States (in addition with the UK, Norway and Switzerland) will be self-sufficient in its demand for CO2-free energy sources and competing feedstocks in 2040. The technical potential of the supply of CO2-free energy sources are taken into account in this study and compared to the currently installed capacity and the supply ambitions of the EU27+3 governments.

The study reveals that the current supply of CO2-free energy sources is 10 PJ while the technical potential supply for 2040 is estimated to be 60 EJ. Between now and 2040, the supply thus needs to increase by about six times to reach the technical potential. In addition, the current EU27+3 governments’ ambitions for the capacity of the considered CO2-free energy sources in 2040 is about two thirds of the technical supply potential estimated in this study. These government ambitions alone do not meet the demand for CO2-free energy sources and feedstocks in 2040. It is important to note that the supply figures do not include import.

Figure 1. Current availability of CO2-free energy sources and feedstocks, ambitions for 2040 and technical potential supply 2040. Demand side represents demand for CO2-free energy incl. transport losses in different sectors (i.e. not total energy demand, fossil share is left out of figure), Source: CE Delft

The study further investigates the balancing of the technical supply potential of and demand for CO2-free energy sources in 2040 by exploring different combinations of energy sources and feedstock. Based on the analysis, the different scales show that the total local CO2-free energy/feedstock supply and demand of the EU27+3 can be in balance in 2040. However, the demand for biomass can only be met when the technical potential of sustainable non- food crops is fully realised and/or by taking additional demand reduction measures and/or with more efficient use of energy/feedstocks for instance by avoiding the use of biomass in sectors that have alternatives.

This study does not entirely reflect reality due to scoping choices and the exclusion of economic, social and environmental constraints influencing the supply of CO2-free energy sources. The analysis demonstrates that the EU government supply ambitions will not meet the demand for CO2-free energy sources and feedstocks in 2040 if no additional demand reduction measures are taken. This is only the case when the sustainable technical potential of cultivation of non-food crops is fully realised. However, the cultivation of non-food crops on marginal land is not yet common practice and will require considerable efforts.

The CE Delft study concludes that considerable extra efforts are required to meet the climate neutrality goals. This can be done by lowering barriers to the further realisation of CO2-free energy/feedstock supply and sector transitions as much as possible, for instance e-fuels production, grid and electrolyser capacity, modal shift and reducing transport kilometres.

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Read the study in full detail by downloading it here.